Weekly COVID-19 Insights from hc1
INDIANAPOLIS, IN / AGILITYPR.NEWS / September 24, 2020 / Positive Antibody Tests Decline Slightly as Overall Testing Volumes Drops Again
The CV19 Lab Testing Dashboard™ powered by hc1 provides local lab testing insights that include state, county, and sub-county views of Local Risk Index, COVID-19 testing rates and results, and key demographic filters for those tested (age, gender). Data used in the dashboard comes from more than 20,000 lab ordering locations from a coalition of laboratories performing up to 40% of the nation’s laboratory testing.
Summary
- Viral PCR testing volumes increased slightly for the first time in six weeks, while antibody testing held steady again.
- Percent positivity rates held at ~5.0% for Viral PCR and increased to 12% for Antibody testing
- hc1 Local Risk Index trends show rising risk for infection in states including Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and Kentucky.
- Pennsylvania and Virginia were back again with counties among the hc1 Local Risk Index Top Counties.
- To access the hc1 CV19 Lab Testing Dashboard, register for free at www.CV19Dashboard.org.
Viral PCR Testing
As of September 24, 2020, the national percent positivity rate for COVID-19 testing remained steady for a sixth consecutive week at about 5%, while testing volume increased slightly for the week. This can be seen in the following chart showing the weekly national trend in SARS-CoV-2 Viral PCR testing volume and % detected rate among the hc1 CV19 Coalition of Laboratories, which represents approximately 40% of all CV19 testing nationwide.
Antibody Serology Testing
The weekly national trend in SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Serology testing volume and % detected rate shows testing volume holding steady for the week but remaining low in comparison to viral testing volume. Percent positivity increased by nearly 1% to just under 12% after showing a slight decline last week, as seen in the following chart.
Local Risk Index
The hc1 Local Risk Index trends for the week of September 21, show rising risk for infection in states including Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and Kentucky. Pennsylvania was back for a third week and Virginia for a second with counties among the Top 10 with the largest magnitude of change in infection rates from over last week, as determined by calculating the LRI x ‘7vs7’ rate*. The remaining top counties are in Mississippi, Wisconsin, Indiana, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Texas, and Florida. (Dr. Peter Plantes offers deeper insights into each week’s hc1 Local Risk Index Top Counties here: https://www.hc1.com/blog/tag/covid-19/.)
Criteria for Top Counties:
- A population greater than 100,000
- More than 100 COVID-19 viral tests performed in the past week
- An hc1 Local Risk Index™ greater than 7
- An acceleration factor of LRI equal to or greater than 1.5
For a community of 100,000, a rapid rise in the presence of positive COVID-19 viral testing is the earliest indicator that ER, hospital, ICU, ventilators, and other medical resources (clinical providers, PPE, facilities, etc.) will be heavily taxed in the next 10 to 21 days. The community that has the largest acceleration in positive tests week-over-week will see the fastest rise in the magnitude of COVID-19 cases.
* This brief video provides an explanation of how to utilize the LRI to track specific regions.
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